Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Feel The Bern: Hillary's Michigan Lead DESTROYED As Trump Leads Among Young Michiganders, Emerson Accused Of Rigging Poll

By Brandon Hall
(Email him at
Hillary's polls in Michigan have absolutely collapsed in the last week: what was once a 10% lead coming out of the convention has been cut in half, and Trump's momentum continues to grow.

"The Donald" even just announced a new TV ad buy in the Great Lakes State.

The recent Michigan polls show:

Suffolk: Hillary +7%
Emerson: Hillary +5%
Reuters/Ipsos: Trump +1%

The Ipsos poll receives an "A" rating from popular pollster Nate Silver at 538, and the same poll previously had Hillary up 2%.

The most interesting poll though may be the Emerson poll out Monday. Neither it, or the Reuters/Ipsos poll seem to be getting as much coverage as past polls...

It looks like many young Michigan Bernie Sanders supporters are backing Trump over Hillary while sadly some Republicans pout on the sidelines!

Young people understand the stakes are high, we know Hillary Clinton will sell us out to the highest bidder.

According to reports:

"Younger voters favor Clinton over Trump in Ohio (by 50% to 32%) and Pennsylvania (42% to 39%).

But in Michigan, where young people helped Bernie Sanders stage an upset over Clinton in the Democratic primary, Trump leads 45% to 33% among those 18-34.

Both candidates are receiving about 80% of their party vote. However, Independents are consistently lining up for Trump. In Ohio his edge with Independents is 47% (Trump) to 30% for Clinton, in Michigan it’s 39% to 38% and in Pennsylvania 43% to 37%."

One analysis contends the poll is too heavily weighted towards the 75+ demographic and that, as the Reuters/Ipsos poll shows, Trump is actually ahead of Hillary in Michigan.

"Michigan poll rigged, Trump actually winning 47-38 (Emerson):

"(E)ver curious about Trump converting solid blue states, I looked at the Michigan data and noticed a whopper of a rigging attempt -- they made nearly half of their sample aged 75 and older! Michigan may not be the youngest state in the union, but half of the electorate there is not going to be in a nursing home.

Moreover, the cross-tabs show that this elderly group is demographically unlike Michigan overall in the most anti-Trump way -- they are far more Democrat, far less Republican / Independent, more female, less educated, far more black, and more likely to live in the Detroit area.

Did they rig the OH and PA samples to be composed of nearly half elderly folks? No, because the true results are probably more favorable to Clinton in those states (more or less tied). In fact, both OH and PA have the same breakdown by age groups, and only 9% were aged 75+. The age composition for both OH and PA is:

18-34 -- 25%
35-54 -- 37%
55-74 -- 29%
75++ -- 09%

In Michigan, the age composition was impossibly older:

18-34 -- 16%
35-54 -- 21%
55-74 -- 18%
75++ -- 44%

Way, way, way off. They under-sampled young, middle, and old by 10 points or more, and replaced them with the elderly Trump-haters.

Here is Trump support by age group in MI:

18-34 -- 45
35-54 -- 52
55-74 -- 48
75++ -- 28

I took Trump's support among the various age groups in MI, and weighted them by the age composition of the accurate OH and PA samples. What was the result?

Surprise: Trump 47, Clinton 38, Johnson 8, Stein 3, Unsure 4.

Looks like the original home of the "Reagan Democrats" is stepping up to the plate to Make America Great Again."

Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway notes the media doesn't seem to like covering the new polls...

According to The Hill:
"Donald Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, on Tuesday blasted the media for being silent on the latest polls, which show a narrowing gap between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

"Three weeks ago every headline & pundit screamed 'Look at the polls! Race is over!' #Polls now tightening; media chatter is poll-free," Conway tweeted.
Several recent national polls have shown Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, gaining ground on Clinton, the Democratic nominee. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll released Tuesday, for example, found Clinton beating Trump by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent.

Clinton was leading Trump by 8 points in that poll last week. Clinton now leads Trump by 5 points nationally,according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls."

Brandon Hall is a lifelong political nerd from Grand Haven, and is the Managing Editor of West Michigan Politics.

>>>Email him at


Photo By Darlene Dowling Thompson

1 comment:

  1. The left is setting the stage for a rigged election. They won't be able to convince America that Hillary had really won it if trailing in November. Best to rig the polls, too, just to be on the safe side, huh, Hillary?