Pages

Friday, October 28, 2016

Breaking: Trump Beating Hillary By 4% In Early Michigan Absentee Returns


By-Brandon Hall
(Email West MIPolitics@Gmail.com)

Donald Trump and the Republicans lead Hillary Clinton and the Democrats in early voting returns, Chad Livengood of the Detroit News reports.

190,000 Republicans have turned in ballots vs. only 170,000 Dems. Nearly 160,000 independent/unaffiliated voters have also cast ballots, a group Trump consistently leads with in nearly every poll.

Those numbers translate to:

Trump/R: 36.5%
Hillary/D: 32.6 %
Independent/Unaffiliated/Non-Primary voters: 30.9%

Stay tuned! :)

__________________________________________________________________
Brandon Hall is a lifelong political nerd from Grand Haven, and is the Managing Editor of West Michigan Politics.

>>>Email him at WestMiPolitics@Gmail.com

Facebook
Twitter
Photo By Darlene Dowling Thompson


20 comments:

  1. who says all the Democrat ballots returned are votes for Hillary?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who says all the Republican ballots are for Trump?

      Delete
    2. No Republican would ever vote for Clinton, but many Democrats are Bernie supporters.

      Delete
    3. This is accounted as what the polls expect. 4% of Democrats voting for Trump, and 3% of Republicans voting for Hillary. As well as last election's numbers of 45% of Independents voting Democratic and 50% voting Republican.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous, I'm pretty sure D's for Trump outnumber R's for Clinton everywhere in the country except the DC area.

      Delete
    5. Literally every poll out there has Hillary taking significantly more Republicans than Trump taking Democrats. You people are truly deluded.

      Delete
    6. Eh, most polls show both parties losing about the same amount to the other, as is typical.

      IBD has both picking up 6% of the other party.
      ABC Trump picking up 88% of Reps which is higher than IBD so probably.
      Fox has Clinton picking up 5% of Reps while Trump picks up 8% of Dems
      Reuters has Clinton picking up 6% of Reps with Trump Picking up 7% of Dems

      Those are just the first ones I grabbed off RCP but looks like basically the same to me

      Delete
  2. Do you know what % of the 2012 mail in ballots were dem vs rep vs indy?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Mail in ballots usually include a lot of active military who vote heavily Republican because they give a shit what happens to their country.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hillary Clinton is toast

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. fivethirtyeight.com shows trump with a less than 20% chance of winning the election. So don't bet on it.

      Delete
    2. 538 also had Sanders with less than a 1% chance of winning Michigan and see how well that turned out. He also had Trump with a 2% chance of getting the Republican nomination in January.

      Delete
    3. 538 also takes the crap lamestream media polls at face value.

      Delete
    4. Probably because those are the same exact polls and same exact polling methods that they used to accurately predict virtually every state in both 2008 and 2012. Truly grasping at straws.

      Delete
    5. Yes, Nate had a good record in Obama's election years. Not so good of 2014 or primary year. The main problem for 538 this election cycle is the bifurcation of the polls. In 2012, every major poll was within 4 points of each other. Today, it's over 16 point spread. 7 polls have the race +-2, 5 have it C +3-6 and another 4 have C +9-14%. You didn't see those types of outlier polls, especially of any quantity, in 2008 or 2012. You did in the 2016 primary though and Brexit.

      Delete
    6. Maybe all that's true. But Trump will still lose.

      Delete
  5. Absentee voters are self-selecting, just like the people who participate in online polls. So absentee ballot returns have no predictive value when it comes to the actual outcome of the election.

    ReplyDelete
  6. How do you know who turned in what? Michigan doesn't have early voting. Absentee, yes. Those ballots are sealed when turned in and aren't counted till day of election. Nothing on the outside of the envelope indicates what party. I just turned mine in to the Kalamazoo County Clerk so I know of what I say.

    ReplyDelete
  7. tony@mail.postmanllc.net

    ReplyDelete
  8. Jury finds Brandon Hall guilty of election fraud

    http://www.grandhaventribune.com/Courts/2016/11/30/Jury-finds-Brandon-Hall-guilty-of-election-fraud.html?ci=stream&lp=1&p=1

    ReplyDelete