By Brandon Hall
A few weeks ago, Chuck Todd noted that the election could come down to Michigan and Wisconsin.
Now 538 has a similar analysis, labeling Michigan as Hillary's "tipping point state" that continues to lean more toward Trump...
According to 538:
"I’ve highlighted Michigan in the table because it would be the tipping-point state if the recent polls are right — that is, the state that would get Clinton to 270 electoral votes if she wins it along with all the states above it. She leads in Michigan by 3 percentage points in the simple average of recent polls, almost exactly matching her lead in national polls. That’s further confirmation that national polls and state polls tell pretty much the same story.
It’s interesting that Michigan shapes up as the tipping-point state in this analysis, since it’s one that had been considered relatively safe for Clinton before. But Clinton’s decline has been steeper recently in the Midwest, including in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa."
The Washington Post also highlighted Michigan's importance in a piece called "Why Michigan is a key state to watch in the 2016 presidential race."
The Post writes:
"Since 1992, Michigan has voted for the Democratic candidate in presidential elections, but the 50-state poll suggests Trump has a shot at flipping the state. Clinton stands at 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, and when third-party candidates are included, has a one-point edge, with Johnson receiving 13 percent and Stein taking 5 percent. Other recent polls in the state find Clinton with a more comfortable lead, between seven and 10 points.
More than 8 in 10 of the state’s registered voters are white, a group that Trump is leading by nine points in the Post-SurveyMonkey poll released this week. Clinton leads by a much larger 51-point margin among the 2 in 10 Michigan voters who are nonwhite. Both Trump’s and Clinton’s edges here are similar to many other states.
Over half, 56 percent, of Michigan’s voters are whites without college degrees, a group that Trump leads by 22 points. Clinton’s doing better among the 26 percent of registered voters in the state who are white college graduates, where she has a 17-point lead. Both leads are similar to what the candidates have in other states among the same groups.
Independents in the state are largely split between the candidates, while almost 9 in 10 partisans on both sides are voting for their parties’ candidates. Independent men are more likely to support Trump, and in Michigan, independent women are split between the two candidates."