Friday, October 7, 2016

Hagerstrom: Time For A "Reality Check" On Trump Vs. Hillary Michigan Polls

Hagerstrom (DarKen Photography)

By-Brandon Hall
(Email West

Michigan Trump State Director Scott Hagerstrom shredded the media's reporting on the Presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Michigan in a recent email.

Hagerstrom says Trump haters need a "reality check."

According to a press release:

"Recent local polls have purported to show that Hillary Clinton is leading by 5-11 points in Michigan.  This clearly does not match up with reality – see below. 

Reality Check #1 – Hillary Was Forced Back Into Michigan

Hillary’s campaign believes the race in Michigan is extremely close, and they obviously have internal polling numbers telling them as much.  Why else would she send in dozens of top surrogates to Michigan over the last few weeks, including her entire family?  Furthermore, why would she finally schedule a visit after being a no-show for nearly 60 days?  Wasn’t Michigan supposed to be part of the blue wall?

Reality Check #2 – Highly Rated Poll Shows Race In Michigan Is Dead Heat

For months, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has continued show that the race in Michigan is a dead heat.  As of September 29, the poll showed the race was tied: Trump 39, Clinton 39. 
Of the recent Michigan polls, Reuters/Ipsos is one of the highest rated pollsters according to Nate Silver’s Five ThirtyEightEight Rankings. 

Reality Check #3 – Michigan Polls Had Hillary Up By 20 Points Before She Lost To Bernie In The Primary

During the primary, no polls were more off than Michigan’s.  In fact, the same pollster that conducted the most recent Michigan poll showing Clinton +11 also had Clinton +24 right before she was embarrassed by Bernie Sanders in the primary.  Clearly, the turnout model some local pollsters are using for Michigan is way off.

Detroit Free Press, 3/5/16, “Clinton has big lead on Sanders in Michigan” by Todd Spangler
“I think she’s well positioned (to win Tuesday),” said Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA’s pollster, who also noted that Clinton has an even higher lead — 67% to 24% — among absentee voters, who could make up a sizable portion of voters. “It will be very difficult for Bernie to make inroads.”

Campaigns and Election, 3/11/16, “Why the Michigan Polling Miss Is A Larger Problem For The Industry” by Stefan Hankin

Reality Check #4 – Huge Energy And Enthusiasm Gap

Many in the media have covered recent visits to Michigan by Clinton Surrogates and Mr. Trump himself.  They should not ignore what we’ve all seen with our own eyes.  Tim Kaine and Bill Clinton could not get more than a few hundred people each to show up to their rallies in Michigan.  Meanwhile, more than 7,000 people participated in completely grass-roots organized state-wide “flash mobs” in support of Mr. Trump – and that was without a candidate or surrogate.  In addition, tens of thousands have attended rallies and many more are volunteering on a regular basis.   The enthusiasm for Hillary’s events is dismal in comparison because voters want change over the status-quo, and are sick and tired of Washington corruption and backroom deals.

Brandon Hall is a lifelong political nerd from Grand Haven, and is the Managing Editor of West Michigan Politics.

>>>Email him at


Photo By Darlene Dowling Thompson


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