By Brandon Hall
(Email him at WestMIPolitics@Gmail.com)
The brutal murder of Ruby Garcia by an illegal in Grand Rapids Friday will have significant consequences in November that benefit President Trump according to renowned pollster and political consultant John Yob.
"It is never easy to comment on the political or electoral impacts of tragedy," Yob said "But it is a necessary role of pollsters and political analysts to determine the impacts of current events on our political system. Tragedy struck Grand Rapids in West Michigan very hard this week, and the impact on Michigan politics and the national election is undeniable. This tragedy is going to change Michigan’s electoral outlook and quite possibly impact the entire country."
Here are the excerpts from Yob's latest briefing:
"Some members of the media make the interesting choice to hide the fact that some murderers
are illegal immigrants when reporting the news. It is unfortunate that they proactively choose to
leave out such a relevant fact. Luis Fabian Bernal-Sosa was convicted of first-degree on
February 7th.
The case received relatively little media attention and few if any reported his
status. However that is likely to change. He was scheduled to be sentenced tomorrow March
27th, and that has now been moved to April 17th. This story will continue.
The alleged murder of Ruby Garcia on March 24th by illegal immigrant Brandon Ortiz-Vite is
receiving a very significant amount of national media attention and put this issue immediately on
the forefront. The issue of illegal immigrants murdering people in Grand Rapids is now a
national story that will not go away any time soon.
President Trump Successfully Realigned Michigan Electoral Politics in 2016
President Trump was able to win Michigan in 2016 for the first time in nearly three decades
because he single-handedly and successfully realigned the electoral makeup of the state. He
overperformed in blue-collar areas of the state such as Macomb County, Mid-Michigan, and
Northern Michigan. He earned the votes of autoworkers and working families taking that
coalition away from the Democrats and leaving them as the liberal elitist party of the East and
West Coasts.
The downside of that successful realignment included underperforming in historically strong
Republican territories such as Kent County in West Michigan and Southeast Michigan’s Oakland
County. The 2000 and 2004 campaigns included the famous term “soccer moms” to describe
more establishment Republicans. Candidates such as George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush
prioritized and appealed to these voters with varying degrees of success despite the difficult
issue of abortion. Their strategy worked well in bringing traditional establishment West Michigan
voters to the Republican column. But they ultimately failed as statewide candidates in Michigan
because of their underperformance with blue-collar working families.
2024 is the Year Traditional Republicans Come Home in West Michigan
The massive problem at the border and corresponding media attention is now on the verge of
turning these “soccer moms” into “security moms” in West Michigan and changing their
perspective in the Presidential race. The heat of the immigration crisis is going to turn to a boil
this week as attention builds on the sentencing of Bernal-Sosa and today’s arrest of Ortiz-Vite
for murder. One case is a terrible tragedy, two cases is an unacceptable trend that voters will
not easily accept. Simply put, the immigration crisis is likely to move historically centrist
Republicans in West Michigan who were torn in recent Presidential elections firmly into
President Trump’s corner.
The Unfortunate Truths
There have been not one - but two - alleged murders by illegal immigrants in recent months.
The alleged murderer arrested today - Ortiz-Vite - was deported by President Trump in
September of 2020 and somehow he got back into the country thereafter. Making matters
worse, Kent County Michigan is a sanctuary county. Suburban families, even as far north as
West Michigan, are now finding out that the open southern border is in their backyard - and
they don't like it. They are about to hear about it over and over again in the media.
Impact of Change in West Michigan
As you can see from the data in the appendix, just a small shift in sentiment from traditional
1990’s style Republicans in West Michigan would move Michigan’s electoral votes back to
President Trump. The ripple effect of the media attention will also impact “security moms” in
areas of the state such as Oakland County and Traverse City, quite possibly moving Michigan
out of reach for President Biden.
Conclusion
The immigration issue hitting home in West Michigan is going to fundamentally change the
outlook of the 2024 election and put Michigan more firmly in President Trump’s corner.
Because of Biden’s failed immigration policies, this is likely to play out in other states and across
the country - a prime example of which is Georgia, after the murder of nursing student Laken
Riley in February.
Immigration is once again the most determinative issue in national electoral politics, and critical
Grand Rapids, Michigan is now ground zero for the presidential race."
____________________________________________
Brandon Hall is a lifelong political nerd from Grand Haven, and is the Managing Editor of West Michigan Politics.
>>>Email him at WestMIPolitics@Gmail.com
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