What exactly is Obama’s plan? He has suggested a “balanced approach” but what is that? Allow me to gaze into my crystal ball and make a prediction. After trying to lead from behind and following his vacation, he will enlighten us. Is this prompted by falling support among his staunchest supporters (black community) and across-the-board, historically low approval numbers?
Whatever the reason, he is faced with an impossible task of pairing his ideology with something that will “stimulate” the economy. It must be a bold move and forward looking with no reference of results from the past two and a half years.
What will we hear? In addition to overlooking multiple metrics which are obvious to everyone, he will continue blame the economy he inherited which was “at the brink”. On top of this, he will blame current Republicans in Congress for ….. What? What exactly has the current congress done to block Obama? What proposals has Obama submitted other than vague references of the rich paying their “share”? Ironically, even if congress had blocked anything, he’d just backdoor his plans with an executive order or impose new regulations without benefit of congress through various agencies.
By any measure the original stimulus not only failed to spur the economy and jobs. Many would argue it made it worse while destroying economic outlook. Rather than try anything with proven results (like lower business tax), it is likely he will continue to do that which failed before. The stimulus was about $1 trillion, part of almost $5 Trillion in spending in less than 3 yrs, requiring a debt ceiling increase to give him more spending room.
To be fair, $5 trillion in three years was not wasted completely. It cemented support of bankers, unions, government workers and millions of low income assistance recipients. It allowed Obama to “spread the wealth” among the poor, not-so-poor and of, course big money friends and ideological brothers.
Getting back to the impossible task, it is not brain surgery to create jobs and improve the economy. By any logical view, it would mean a reversal of virtually every piece of his business killing legislation and executive orders, while ceasing his rhetoric of taxing the rich and demonizing industry which has strangled the private sector. Most importantly, it would require massive cuts to government programs, dismantle agencies and negate regulatory power.
Sadly, ideology of a Socialist like society will not let him, resulting in his visible foul mood of late.
The more his is pressured by all sides looking for relief, the madder he gets and seeks to place blame on everyone but himself including the Japanese earthquake and “bad luck”
The biggest source of his poor disposition was the debt ceiling “crisis”. Rather than a simple, painless process, the media attention made it major epiphany to the American public. It raised awareness to the real problem (spending and debt). That the public is aware spending is the problem runs counter to every instinct he has to grow government and increase control.
Jobs is the number one issue and a grand strategy is called for. His only logical answer? Propose an historic spending scheme, perhaps eclipsing the original stimulus.
With daily erosion of the recently increased debt ceiling, Obama desperately needs to raise it further. His justification will be for a “jobs initiative” which is actually another stimulus, but that word won’t be mentioned).
Hurricane Irene was perhaps seen as a “crisis, which shouldn’t be wasted” and maybe the over hype by every media outlet was part of the plan. Although less than hyped, it will still provide an excuse for billions in spending to fix roads, etc.
Spending on hurricane damages can only go so far. He needs an excuse to call for much more spending. This, I predict will be the crux of his “jobs initiative”
The original stimulus was supposed to be for infrastructure projects, bridges to nowhere and especially “community grants” to impoverished center city areas which will be a promise to shore up support for his based of minorities. Whatever “investments” are made, history tells us they will have the same results as similar big city projects unfolding over the past 50 yrs.
My guess is he will use the same script for “Stimulus II” with he same predictable results as the first. His bold “jobs initiative” will make headlines. Obama will be seen as the Pied Piper throwing money all over in an attempt to be loved.
The spending levels he will ask for will never fly and he knows it. In fact, he will ask for the largest possible amount. Perhaps even tie it with the next increase to the debt ceiling again to ensure it will not pass congress. He knows the Republican congress and the great majority of Americans will be against another stimulus as they were against the first. Against the backdrop of the stimulus’ failure, the opposition will even be greater.
However, among the least informed of his Democrat support it will play well. With the inevitable
When congress rejects it, his campaign speeches will proclaim, “I tried to help, but the
Republicans stood in the way”. (Teleprompter), “repeat often and blame Republican racism for standing in the way of jobs for minorities”
For the noisiest and most hard line liberal of his base which wants him to stand firm against any indication of fiscal conservancy, it will increase their support. However for any moderates or those looking for results oriented options, I doubt they will be charmed. In fact, they will be turned off by the continued blame game.